
AerCap Global Aviation Trust
Management report for the financial year ended 31 December 2025 (continued)
Principal risks and uncertainties (continued)
Geopolitical and economic risk (continued)
These changes in trade policy and ongoing negotiations of trade agreements are creating significant uncertainty,
and future tariffs or other measures may create additional uncertainty, which could materially affect the Trust’s
business. In addition, tariffs and other measures could result in material additional costs to the Trust’s lessees in
impacted jurisdictions, which could affect the ability of those lessees to meet their lease obligations to the Trust
and could negatively impact the demand for leases or purchases of certain types of flight equipment in impacted
jurisdictions. In addition, tariffs levied on countries where the Trust’s suppliers source their parts and material
could disrupt their operations, which could result in delays in the delivery of the Trust’s flight equipment on
order of increased costs. These tariffs and other measures could be inflationary or cause interest rates to rise,
which could negatively impact the Trust, its suppliers and its lessees.
Changes in tariffs and other measures may be announced with little or no advance notice. The adoption and
expansion of tariffs and other measures, or other changes in governmental policies related to taxes, tariffs, trade
agreements, are difficult to predict, which makes attendant risks difficult to anticipate and mitigate. Changes in
tariffs and other measures announced to date or the threats of such tariffs or other measures, have led to
increased geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty and volatility in the financial markets.
Military conflict and resulting geopolitical instability in the Middle East could adversely affect the Trust's
customers, operations, and financial performance.
Geopolitical instability in the Middle East has intensified following coordinated military actions by the United
States and Israel against Iran commencing on 28 February 2026, and subsequent retaliatory activity by Iran
across the region. These developments have disrupted regional airspace, global shipping routes and energy
flows, including through the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit point for oil and gas shipments. The resulting
volatility in energy prices and increases in operational costs, as well as potential fuel shortages, have created
heightened uncertainty for airlines and for the overall economic environment.
These conditions may adversely affect the Trust's airline customers by increasing their operating costs, reducing
passenger demand and limiting capacity deployment. These pressures may weaken customers’ financial
condition and credit profiles, increasing the likelihood of lease restructurings, payment delays, or defaults. The
evolving situation may also create additional operational and market uncertainties that could affect the Trust's
airline customers’ financial condition and cash flows and, consequently, their ability to meet lease obligations.
If the conflict escalates or persists, the Trust could experience reduced demand for flight equipment, pressure on
lease rates, changes in trading activity, delivery delays, and revisions to residual value expectations. The Trust
could also experience higher financing and insurance costs. Any of these factors, individually or collectively,
could have a material and adverse effect on the Trust's financial condition, cash flows, liquidity and results of
operations.
Macroeconomic risks
After a sustained period of relatively low inflation rates, rates of inflation increased significantly during 2022
and 2023, reaching recent historical highs in the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and
other countries, before stabilising during 2024 and 2025. Ongoing geopolitical instability, including the current
conflict in the Middle East, has contributed to increased volatility in global energy, fuel and commodity markets
and may place renewed upward pressure on inflation levels. Additionally, the increases in tariffs by the United
States in the last year, the prospect of potential additional tariffs and retaliatory tariffs and the trade agreements
between the United States and certain trading partners in recent months may also lead to higher inflation in the
future. The conflict in the Middle East could further disrupt global supply chains, shipping routes and energy
production or transportation, which could exacerbate inflationary pressures.
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